San Francisco Classical Voice

If they are not here, they may well be a-coming, and performing arts organizations are taking steps to deal with a new, different situation. The quadruple whammy of the economic downturn, retirement-accounts deflation after technology stocks unraveled, the aftermath of September 11, and the uncertainty of the new "war" is either hitting hard or may be expected to do so in attendance, income, contributions.

New York City organizations are the logical ones to be hit the worst, but it's the orchestras in the Midwest (the biggest ones at that) which are in immediate jeopardy. The St. Louis Symphony is facing bankruptcy if it doesn't raise an additional $29 million by the end of the year.

The Chicago Symphony, after 15 good years, has a deficit of "only" $1.2 million, but the projection for next year is twice that, and CSO Association president Henry Fogel announced preliminary cuts, layoffs and other measures. At least 12 of the organization's 145 administrative positions are eliminated, ECHO — the orchestra's high-tech education center — is closed effective immediately, half of the CSO school and senior-center outreach programs are cut, and the scheduled concert performances of Tristan und Isolde will be produced without special lighting and staging.

After seven debt-free years, the Vancouver Symphony is now struggling with a deficit of close to $1 million, due — in part — to a four-month-long transit strike. The Toronto Star says the Toronto Symphony is facing "imminent demise." The TSO deficit has climbed to $7 million; the orchestra must come up with $1.5 million in cash and another $1 million in credit before November 30. The Canadian Opera Company and the National Ballet of Canada are also fighting deficit (following a sharp reduction in government subsidies), but their situation is better than the orchestra's. Private donors, who contributed a total of $25 million to the three organizations last year, need to realize quickly that the government's role has changed.

In Northern California, the situation is much better. Except for the San Jose Symphony, which is facing a seemingly overwhelming $2.5 million deficit, the major organizations feel no pain yet. The San Francisco Symphony is continuing its enviable fiscal record, and public relations manager Julia Inouye says there are no significant lasting effects, "we are basically back to normal." For the month of September, there was a 3.5% drop in attendance, but many ticket holders just exchanged out of the concerts immediately after September 11 for later dates. San Francisco Ballet PR manager Kyra Jablonsky says there are no negative signs there yet for the upcoming season in advance ticket sales.

San Francisco Opera public relations director Elizabeth Connell Nielsen director told SF Classical Voice on Monday that there are no cuts on the horizon. "We saw no slowdown in walk-up single ticket sales, although there was a slight downturn in advance sales on the week of September 11, then sales shot back the week after," she said. Only about 5% of ticket-holders did not attend performances on the week of the 11th, the majority exchanged tickets for another date later in the run of the same opera. "We came to within 1 or 2 percent of our attendance goals for both Rigoletto and Arshak," Connell Nielsen said, adding that it's too early to comment about impact on contributions because the new fiscal year started on August 1 and the annual fund drive begins at the end of October.

Cal Performances had a successful fund-raising event last weekend, netting an estimated $50,000. San Francisco Performances, according to founder-director Ruth Felt, is "monitoring the situation carefully, and at this point, we estimate that ticket sales/attendance is probably about 5 to 10% down from what we expected. For contributions, it's too soon to tell. We do not anticipate any cutbacks in program or staff."

Honolulu Symphony marketing director Alan Rakow told me that everything is "noticably slower," but "not by as much as you'd expect." Tourist attendance has never been important in the Islands' classical music life, but the hit the state's No. 1 industry is taking has an impact already: subcription sales have "tapered off," Rakow says, and the season's first Pops concert last weekend did not sell out, unlike in previous years. Taking a proactive approach, the Symphony is increasing activity in the local music scene and participates in a free community concerts. Also, the Honolulu orchestra is open about having a contingency plan, "if things get worse from here on, but we are not anywhere close to even considering its implementation."